The Final Blow ? : Is this the End of US Hegemony in West Asia and the rise of Iran, the 4th Centre of World Power Pt.2

 In part 2, we examine Pakistan's possible role in a new security architecture for West Asia and the combined outcome of a positive collaboration with Iran by combining the analysis of Force Magazine's Pravin Sawhney (retd Indian army officer and leading Indian affairs military analyst) and Professor Robert Pape (Professor of Political Science, USA). (Part 1 here)

The Emerging Strategic Architecture

Both analysts describe a fundamental shift in global power that combines three key assessments:

1. Professor Pape's Analysis: Iran as 4th World Power Center

  • Iran now controls 20% of world oil via Hormuz (double Russia's pre-war 11%)
  • Iran is "dwarfing Israel" and has now emerged as a new centre of world power
  • Netanyahu's dream of Israel as "super nation", militarily invincible and a regional energy hub is wrong—Iran is the rising power

2. Pravin Sawhney's Assessment: China-Pakistan Cyber/Space Integration

According to Pravin Sawhney of FORCE Magazine :
  • China is unmatched globally in military cyber and space capabilities
  • "Pakistan will get cyber & space from China"—direct technology transfer
  • Pakistan possesses "good Electronic Warfare capabilities" and it's implementation is proven through actual combat performance especially in the most recent skirmish against India in operation Sindoor.
  • China exercises "total war control" by dominating cyberspace, electromagnetic space, and outer space
  • The People's Liberation Army (PLA) fights across "seven war domains" simultaneously

3. The China-Iran Economic-Strategic Nexus

  • 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2021): $400 billion Chinese investment for discounted oil
  • Yuan-denominated oil trade via China's CIPS system—already processing $130 billion daily by March 2026
  • Oil-for-infrastructure arrangements bypassing the dollar
  • China-Iran cooperation in missile technology, satellite/space, cybersecurity, electronic warfare

A possible emergence of a "New World Order" ?

This creates a strategic configuration :
Table
ComponentCapabilityStrategic Function
Iran (Shia)World power center, Hormuz control, missile/ drone supremacy/homegrown technological capabilitiesEnergy chokehold, regional military dominance, anti-Israeli resistance
Pakistan (Sunni)Chinese-supplied cyber/space/EW capabilities, nuclear weaponsForce multiplier via advanced tech, strategic depth
ChinaEconomic backing, technology transfer, financial infrastructureSystemic support, alternative to Western order, yuan internationalization

Table
ComponentIranian Contribution (Pape)Pakistani Contribution (Sawhney)Chinese Facilitation
Strategic Role4th World Power Center, Hormuz oil control ($75-100B/year leverage) Military overmatch vs. India, cyber/space capabilities Economic infrastructure, technology transfer, yuan internationalization 
Sectarian IdentityShia (Revolutionary)Sunni (with Shia leadership precedent)Secular/Communist (agnostic)
Functional AlignmentEnergy chokehold, regional military dominanceGround force/cyber/space capabilities, nuclear weaponsFinancial system, C4ISR backbone, multi-domain warfare doctrine
Shared ObjectiveAnti-US/Israeli dominanceAnti-Indian hegemonyAlternative to Western-led order
The Critical Insight: This is not a traditional alliance but a China-facilitated ecosystem where:
  • Iran provides strategic depth (energy, regional influence, missile/drone supremacy)
  • Pakistan provides tactical execution (Chinese-trained military, cyber/space warfare, nuclear deterrence) and battle tested technological capabilities (Aircraft and Cyber)
  • Both operate within a yuan-denominated economic architecture bypassing Western sanctions
  • Sectarian differences are subordinated to shared opposition to US-Israeli-Indian dominance
The Key Insight: Despite sectarian differences, shared opposition to US-Israeli dominance and Chinese strategic facilitation is creating functional alignment between Shia Iran and Sunni Pakistan—both operating within a China-backed economic-military ecosystem.
What are Pakistan's capabilities:

Sawhney's Core Military Assessment:

Pakistan has never lost a war to India—not in 1965, 1971, or Kargil . His specific arguments include:
Table
ConflictSawhney's Assessment
1965"If Pakistan had lost, there would be no Line-of-Control or ceasefire line on the ground" 
1971Pakistan was strong in the western sector; India failed to achieve strategic objectives there
KargilNot a Pakistani defeat but a limited engagement. Pakistan captured and still holds onto Indian territory despite additional attempts to recapture by India.
2019 BalakotIndia's conventional deterrence was compromised; Pakistan maintained credibility 
2025 Operation SindoorPakistan "punched above its weight" and fought India to a "perceived draw" but in reality, a Pakistani victory by displayng overwhelming air superiority and employing superior cyber capabilities

Why Pakistan is an "Overmatch" for India (Sawhney's Analysis):

  1. Chinese Technology Integration: "Pakistan will get cyber & space from China" —Pakistan has secured:
    • J-10C fighters with PL-15 missiles (outrange US AMRAAMs)
    • HQ-9/P air defense (comparable to Russian S-400)
    • Integrated C4ISR framework with Chinese backbone
    • Electronic warfare capabilities including DWL-002 passive detection
  2. Unified vs. Fragmented Systems: Pakistan's Chinese-origin hardware operates as a cohesive network, while India's "motley force" of Russian, French, Israeli, and American systems lacks interoperability
  3. Multi-Domain Warfare: Pakistan emulates Chinese military doctrine across "seven war domains" including cyberspace, electromagnetic spectrum, and space

Early Implications for Israel's expansionist hopes:

The "Litani Buffer" Zone Objective

Under this new strategic configuration and as of the beginning of April 2026,
Israel and Lebanon: Israel is unable to create a sustainable buffer zone to the Litani because:
  1. Ground forces are tactically overmatched—as proven by inability to secure Bint Jbeil (border town) after three weeks, 70+ tank losses, and Hezbollah's effective anti-tank/ambush tactics
  2. Strategic encirclement—Iran's emergence as world power center with Hormuz control means Israel faces not just Hezbollah, but a peer competitor with global economic leverage
  3. Technological parity via China—Pakistan's access to Chinese cyber/space capabilities and Iran's China-backed missile/space programs create multi-domain threats Israel cannot suppress
  4. Economic strangulation potential—If the petroyuan system solidifies through Hormuz, Israel faces an alternative global order where its US backing becomes less decisive
The "New World Order" —facilitated by Chinese technology and economic infrastructure, spanning Shia-Sunni cooperation against common adversaries—fundamentally negates Israel's capacity for territorial expansion, regardless of air superiority. The ground combat reality at Bint Jbeil is merely the tactical expression of this larger strategic shift.

The Syria issue
Post the fall of Bashar al Assad's government, Israel has occupied Syrian territory and destroyed Assad military and governance infrastructure. The strength of the new Jolani regime is unknown and initial statements seem to show an alignment with Israel on the Hizbollah front but Israel was successful in supporting Druze aspirations against the new government and currently has over 3000 Druze militia on its payroll. The Alawites have been neutralised as a force, with the entire Alawite community subjected to a campaign of massacres by the Jolani government. However, in a surprise move in early April, Sunni tribes have begun mobilising against Israel Finally, Israel's strategic advantages have been severely curtailed: Iran's emergence as 4th world power centre means Israel now faces a peer competitor, not insurgency and a new Systemic development has tajken place - The China-Iran-Pakistan alignment creates multi-front pressure—if Israel curtailed in Lebanon, Pakistan's capabilities (via Chinese technology) could theoretically be leveraged elsewhere in the Islamic world.

References:
1. https://smallwarsjournal.com/2026/03/20/china-iran-intelligence-2026-war/
2. https://www.hindustantimes.com/books/excerpt-the-last-war-by-pravin-sawhney-101660223351838.html
3. https://frontline.thehindu.com/economy/us-iran-war-petrodollar-hormuz-crisis/article70822443.ece
4. https://www.southasiainvestor.com/2020/09/defense-of-pakistan-day-has-pakistan.html
5. https://www.southasiainvestor.com/2020/09/defense-of-pakistan-day-has-pakistan.html
6. https://frontline.thehindu.com/economy/us-iran-war-petrodollar-hormuz-crisis/article70822443.ece

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